All the world's a stage...or to each their own analogy.
Connecting a few observations, it seems reasonable to be very nervous about the foundational model company valuations. My naive logic is that:
1) it seems that the public markets are nervous about the current capex spending;
2) it seems that OAI/Anthropic/xAI must access public markets to 'keep up' in spend;
3) it seems likely (as you noted in your 2026 thoughts) that some of the datacenter buildout will have delayed delivery, extending the lag between capex and revenue.
If these concerns truly kick-in ahead of these IPOs, it seems that there could be some serious holes in various balance sheets. Is this line of thinking overly negative, or missing critical data or thought? I would love your perspective.
It’s funny you compare this to an RTS, because that’s exactly how it feels. If I translate it into DnD terms, I rolled high INT and WIS, but DEX was always my dump stat. I’ve always understood how systems should work and how to architect solutions, but actually executing in code was the bottleneck. AI didn’t change the character, it just removed the execution penalty. In the past few months alone, I’ve built three fully functioning applications to solve problems I ran into directly. Not prototypes, actual working systems. The shift has been from searching for tools to simply creating them. Most recently, I wanted a very targeted SEO and advertising strategy that wouldn’t burn cash, so instead of trusting existing ad platforms to optimize for me, I spent about 12 hours building my own SaaS platform that identifies undervalued ad space and maps it directly to my target demographics. What’s fascinating about the Mag 7 “arms race” isn’t just the scale of their competition, it’s that they’re distributing capability as a side effect. They’re building the infrastructure, but in doing so, they’re enabling a class of builders who previously couldn’t execute at this level. I’m no longer watching the game. I’m building pieces on the board.
Great analogy David, I absolutely love StarCraft and other RTS games like Age of Empires.
"we are seeing a strategic game being played with dramatic moves taken each day. This is not a cautionary, defensive game being played — it’s all out offense... Players are competing over a finite set of resources: AI researchers, GPUs, power, and capital."
We should all work together to ensure a better future for the human race, the AI race is about us all collectively working together.
Interesting perspective on stepping back and observing the AI race as a strategy game.
It also makes me think about how technological revolutions have played out historically. We have seen multiple waves where the companies building foundational infrastructure were not always the ones that ultimately captured the largest share of long-term value. Electricity, refrigeration, mobile technology, and the internet all followed versions of this pattern, where ecosystems, applications, and distribution layers often shaped dominance later.
It feels like AI may still be in its early infrastructure phase. It might be too soon to predict whether long-term influence will belong primarily to infrastructure builders, platform creators, or those who deeply integrate AI into everyday workflows and human capability.
Watching the board evolve right now is as important as playing on it.
All the world's a stage...or to each their own analogy.
Connecting a few observations, it seems reasonable to be very nervous about the foundational model company valuations. My naive logic is that:
1) it seems that the public markets are nervous about the current capex spending;
2) it seems that OAI/Anthropic/xAI must access public markets to 'keep up' in spend;
3) it seems likely (as you noted in your 2026 thoughts) that some of the datacenter buildout will have delayed delivery, extending the lag between capex and revenue.
If these concerns truly kick-in ahead of these IPOs, it seems that there could be some serious holes in various balance sheets. Is this line of thinking overly negative, or missing critical data or thought? I would love your perspective.
It’s funny you compare this to an RTS, because that’s exactly how it feels. If I translate it into DnD terms, I rolled high INT and WIS, but DEX was always my dump stat. I’ve always understood how systems should work and how to architect solutions, but actually executing in code was the bottleneck. AI didn’t change the character, it just removed the execution penalty. In the past few months alone, I’ve built three fully functioning applications to solve problems I ran into directly. Not prototypes, actual working systems. The shift has been from searching for tools to simply creating them. Most recently, I wanted a very targeted SEO and advertising strategy that wouldn’t burn cash, so instead of trusting existing ad platforms to optimize for me, I spent about 12 hours building my own SaaS platform that identifies undervalued ad space and maps it directly to my target demographics. What’s fascinating about the Mag 7 “arms race” isn’t just the scale of their competition, it’s that they’re distributing capability as a side effect. They’re building the infrastructure, but in doing so, they’re enabling a class of builders who previously couldn’t execute at this level. I’m no longer watching the game. I’m building pieces on the board.
Great analogy David, I absolutely love StarCraft and other RTS games like Age of Empires.
"we are seeing a strategic game being played with dramatic moves taken each day. This is not a cautionary, defensive game being played — it’s all out offense... Players are competing over a finite set of resources: AI researchers, GPUs, power, and capital."
We should all work together to ensure a better future for the human race, the AI race is about us all collectively working together.
Interesting perspective on stepping back and observing the AI race as a strategy game.
It also makes me think about how technological revolutions have played out historically. We have seen multiple waves where the companies building foundational infrastructure were not always the ones that ultimately captured the largest share of long-term value. Electricity, refrigeration, mobile technology, and the internet all followed versions of this pattern, where ecosystems, applications, and distribution layers often shaped dominance later.
It feels like AI may still be in its early infrastructure phase. It might be too soon to predict whether long-term influence will belong primarily to infrastructure builders, platform creators, or those who deeply integrate AI into everyday workflows and human capability.
Watching the board evolve right now is as important as playing on it.