The definition of AGI has changed over the last year. As the probability of “takeoff” decreases, the real test for AGI will be the ability to automate the bottom 5% of work.
David, great piece and think you're definitely on to something here with the 5% benchmark. I would add that AGI's ability to impact value creation is even more beneficial (and maybe this will come in time) when there is uniformity across its impact on the workforce. You mentioned that our ability as humans to adapt to its support as it develops over time will be critical, and I could not agree more.
While raising the bar for output by outperforming the bottom 5% of workers, in the industries you mentioned, would be tremendously helpful, my single concern is that we may be overlooking the downsides of bridging the skill gap too quickly. Interested to see how the increasing minimum standard leads to increases in our best and brightest's capabilities as well.
I’d call this less the “era of AI agents” and more the “era of AI applications.” Agents are powerful, but the near-term value will come from startups packaging them into domain-specific apps that solve real problems.
"But even as this new narrative has become dominant, few people have come to terms with its full implications. For example..." Exactly. Sign up for our mailing list at www.EKG.company to learn how our Expectations Knowledge Graph can enable AI agents to help you anticipate ripple effects across sector silos of changes in investor expectations, like this change in expectations for AGI.
Neat analysis and explains why most job reductions have happened in the white collar, entry-level category (correlating competence with years of experience here). However, I feel Kevin Malone would have been a better example for baseline competence :)
David, great piece and think you're definitely on to something here with the 5% benchmark. I would add that AGI's ability to impact value creation is even more beneficial (and maybe this will come in time) when there is uniformity across its impact on the workforce. You mentioned that our ability as humans to adapt to its support as it develops over time will be critical, and I could not agree more.
While raising the bar for output by outperforming the bottom 5% of workers, in the industries you mentioned, would be tremendously helpful, my single concern is that we may be overlooking the downsides of bridging the skill gap too quickly. Interested to see how the increasing minimum standard leads to increases in our best and brightest's capabilities as well.
I’d call this less the “era of AI agents” and more the “era of AI applications.” Agents are powerful, but the near-term value will come from startups packaging them into domain-specific apps that solve real problems.
"But even as this new narrative has become dominant, few people have come to terms with its full implications. For example..." Exactly. Sign up for our mailing list at www.EKG.company to learn how our Expectations Knowledge Graph can enable AI agents to help you anticipate ripple effects across sector silos of changes in investor expectations, like this change in expectations for AGI.
Neat analysis and explains why most job reductions have happened in the white collar, entry-level category (correlating competence with years of experience here). However, I feel Kevin Malone would have been a better example for baseline competence :)